Tariffs & Your Restaurant: What You Need to Know & Strategies to Stay Ahead

Tariffs & Your Restaurant: What You Need to Know (and How to Stay Ahead)

Starting or running a restaurant is thrilling—but let’s be real, it’s also filled with unexpected challenges. One of the biggest curveballs to hit the industry lately? A sudden wave of new tariffs and surcharges.

These aren’t part of the usual business ups and downs. They’re the result of recent political changes—specifically, a new round of trade policies enacted under the Trump administration. For many restaurant owners, this is the first time tariffs are directly impacting their day-to-day operations, affecting everything from imported food and wine to furniture, packaging, and kitchen equipment.

The restaurant industry’s dependence on imported goods leaves it especially vulnerable. Operators rely on essentials like food products, packaging materials, furniture, and kitchen equipment—imports that are now being hit with steep surcharges. Even restaurants that primarily use domestic ingredients may feel the squeeze, as increased demand pushes up local prices.

According to the National Restaurant Association, prices for imported staples like coffee, chocolate, and certain seafood are expected to rise sharply. Coffee, in particular—of which the U.S. imports 99%—may see major spikes. Produce prices could climb 4%, and overall food inflation is projected at 2.8%.

“Applying new tariffs at this scale will create change and disruption that restaurant operators will have to navigate to keep their restaurants open... Tariffs will hike food and packaging costs and add uncertainty to managing availability, while pushing prices up for consumers... Restaurant operators rely on a stable supply of fresh ingredients year-round to provide the menu items their customers want and expect... We’ll provide our members with economic research and convene supply chain experts across the industry to share efforts for the best outcomes.”

Source: Hospitality & Catering News, April 2025

That’s why we created this guide. We're here to help you understand what's happening, how it's affecting your business, and most importantly—what you can do to stay ahead. From smart sourcing to customer retention tactics, this guide can help draft your go-to playbook for navigating tariffs with clarity and confidence.

Understanding the Industry Landscape

With tariffs now taking center stage, restaurant operators are facing new challenges that require more than just day-to-day hustle. The ripple effects go well beyond your supplier invoices—they're showing up in your inventory planning, pricing models, customer behavior, and ultimately, your bottom line.

The restaurant sector in 2025 is navigating a perfect storm—tariffs, inflation, and changing customer behavior are putting new pressures on operations and profit margins. It’s not just about adjusting prices—it’s about adapting strategy across every part of your business. Here's a closer look at how these dynamics are playing out.

The Growing Cost Burden

The impact of tariffs is being felt across nearly every corner of restaurant operations. And because many of these new duties were implemented quickly and across a wide range of goods, operators may be discovering new costs they didn’t budget for—until they show up on invoices. To make things clearer, we’ve compiled a snapshot of some of the most affected categories below. This isn’t just about ingredients—it spans packaging, beverage programs, and even the furniture and equipment restaurants rely on to run day to day.

📊 Tariff Impact: Key Categories

To help you quickly grasp how new tariffs may be impacting your restaurant operations, we’ve grouped common imports into categories that align with major cost centers: ingredients, packaging, beverages, and equipment. Here's what to watch for:

🍲 Ingredients

• Canadian Beef: +25% tariffs increasing costs for steaks, burgers, and other beef-forward dishes.
• Fresh Produce (e.g., avocados, berries): +2.2% increase—affecting salads, sides, and seasonal menus.
• Imported Seafood (e.g., shrimp, salmon): Double-digit increases hitting seafood-centric concepts hardest.
• Coffee Beans (e.g., Vietnam, others): Tariffs up to 46%, driving up the cost of everyday beverage service.

🧵 Packaging & Disposables

• Takeout Containers (from China): Tariffs potentially reaching 125%, raising costs for off-premise operations.
• Paper Products: Increased prices affecting napkins, to-go bags, and single-use supplies.

🍷 Wine & Spirits

• European Wine (French, Italian): +20% tariffs leading to higher wine list prices or substitutions.
• Australian/Chilean Wine: 10–15% increases, impacting international selections.
• Scotch/Irish Whiskey: 10% increase—affecting cocktails, pours, and bar program costs.

🛠️ Equipment & Fixtures

• Kitchen Equipment (various origins): Tariffs contributing to higher upfront costs for ovens, refrigerators, and other key appliances.
• Imported Furniture & Fixtures: Surcharges impacting dining room build-outs and renovations.

The Customer’s Perspective: Tightening the Purse Strings

It’s not just businesses feeling the pinch—diners are adjusting their habits too. A projected 7% dip in consumer restaurant spending this summer (KPMG Consumer Pulse, Summer 2025) signals a growing caution around discretionary spending. Here’s what that looks like:

• Smaller Budgets: Essentials like groceries, gas, and rent are taking priority, shrinking the slice of disposable income left for dining out.
• Value-Driven Decisions: Guests are looking for combo meals, loyalty points, and perceived value—especially in fast casual and family dining.
• Trading Down: Diners are choosing quick-service over full-service, or cooking at home more often to stretch their budgets.

What the Experts Are Saying

• National Restaurant Association: Reports a clear increase in value-based promotions and discounts being used to maintain traffic amid consumer uncertainty.
• Technomic: Observes a slowdown in chain restaurant growth rates, suggesting a broader industry contraction even before full tariff impacts hit.
• Circana: Predicts only modest traffic growth this year as economic concerns outweigh appetite for dining out.
• Paytronix: Highlights a rise in loyalty usage and discount redemptions, underscoring the importance of retention strategies.
• Placer.ai: Notes that quick-service and coffee chains are showing more resilience than full-service dining, confirming the consumer shift toward affordability.

How Diners Are Responding

Your customers are watching their wallets more closely—and that’s affecting how, where, and when they eat out. In 2025, it's not just about creating crave-worthy dishes. It’s about creating value. So, Don’t panic—pivot. You don’t need to slash prices to win customer loyalty. You need to clearly communicate your value, streamline offerings, and create experiences that feel special—without feeling expensive.

• Spending Cuts: A projected 7% dip in restaurant spending this summer indicates a shift in priorities. Diners are saving for essentials, and eating out less frequently.
• Value Seekers: Guests are actively searching for deals, loyalty perks, and meals they perceive as “worth it.” This could mean combo meals, limited-time offers, or bonus incentives for repeat visits.
• Trading Down: Diners who previously favored full-service venues may now choose fast-casual or QSR options to cut costs. Others are turning to grocery delivery and cooking at home.

Use your customer data to spot trends—what’s selling, what’s stalling, and what guests are coming back for. Small optimizations in service, presentation, or portioning can go a long way toward making customers feel like they’re getting more than they paid for.

Strategies for Staying Ahead

Rising tariffs, economic anxiety, and shifting consumer behavior are changing the rules of restaurant success. But here's the good news: this isn't about reinventing the wheel. It's about being nimble, strategic, and focused on what you can control.

As an entrepreneur, your edge lies in adaptability. The best restaurant owners know how to stay alert, evaluate shifting conditions, and pivot quickly. When the landscape changes—whether it’s new tariffs, inflation, or consumer uncertainty—your ability to adjust your operations, pricing, sourcing, and marketing can be the difference between surviving and thriving.

Below, we break down targeted strategies that can help restaurants stay ahead—even in unpredictable times.

1. Menu Engineering & Cost Control 🍲

Your menu is more than a list—it's a financial roadmap. And right now, it's one of your most powerful tools for navigating inflation and tariffs. By revisiting how you price, position, and package your offerings, you can offset cost increases without compromising the customer experience.

Here’s how to put that strategy into action:

• Evaluate menu profitability, not just popularity: Use your POS system to pull food cost percentages and gross profit per dish. A best-seller isn’t always a money-maker—identify which dishes deserve more visibility and which need a refresh or replacement.
• Swap in lower-cost alternatives: Rising beef prices? Consider featuring chicken or plant-forward options that are easier on margins. Be transparent with guests about these changes—many appreciate restaurants that are navigating supply challenges creatively.
• Introduce flexible pricing tiers: Offer multiple portion sizes or bundle deals (e.g., lunch combos, happy hour samplers) to appeal to both budget-conscious and higher-spending customers.
• Lean into high-margin add-ons: Side salads, sauces, or toppings can boost order value when presented as upgrades. Position them as easy ways to customize or enhance a meal.
• Run limited-time tests: Trial seasonal or locally sourced specials to manage food costs. If something performs well, consider adding it permanently.

2. Rethink Sourcing & Supplier Relationships 📦

Tariffs on everything from packaging to protein have made traditional sourcing strategies more expensive—fast. That’s why now is the time to re-evaluate how you’re stocking your kitchen, negotiating vendor contracts, and preparing for future pricing changes. The more flexible and proactive you are, the more control you'll have over costs.

Here are some actionable ways to build a more resilient and cost-effective supply chain:

• Shift toward regional and domestic suppliers: Cut down on tariffs and rising freight costs by sourcing locally. This can also lead to fresher products and stronger community partnerships.
• Negotiate smarter with existing vendors: Ask about volume discounts, extended terms, or early payment incentives. Don’t be afraid to share competitive quotes—it can prompt better deals.
• Join or form a purchasing co-op: Pooling purchasing power with other restaurants can help you access wholesale prices and better contract terms, especially for commodity goods like takeout containers or pantry staples.
• Audit what you're ordering—and how often: Look for opportunities to consolidate orders, reduce overstocking, and minimize spoilage. Reducing waste is one of the fastest ways to protect margins.
• Stay on top of substitutions: If an ingredient or item gets hit with a new tariff, know your backup plan. For example, if Canadian beef spikes, what domestic cuts or alternatives can you use without disrupting your menu?

3. Optimize for Off-Premise & Packaging 📤

As tariffs drive up the cost of packaging—especially for imported materials from China—off-premise strategy needs to evolve. Takeout and delivery remain critical revenue streams for most restaurants, but they now require smarter planning to remain profitable.

Here’s how to elevate your packaging game and protect your margins:

• Test packaging options by cost and quality: Don’t default to your current supplier. Test 2–3 alternatives for insulation, leak resistance, and durability—then evaluate against cost and branding potential.
• Standardize and scale portion sizes: Portion control not only ensures consistency, it also keeps food and packaging costs predictable across high-volume orders.
• Add perceived value through presentation: Branded stickers, sturdy utensils, and reheating instructions turn takeout into an experience—not just a transaction. It builds trust and encourages reorders.
• Use QR codes creatively: Link to reheating instructions, allergy info, or a quick feedback form. This closes the feedback loop and makes the experience more interactive.
• Audit your off-premise sales trends: Understand what travels well, what doesn’t, and which items yield strong profit even after packaging costs. Adjust your takeout menu accordingly.

4. Build Loyalty Through Smart Incentives 💰

When wallets tighten, loyalty becomes gold. Acquiring new customers is always more expensive than retaining current ones—especially during times of uncertainty. That’s why building repeat business through thoughtful, meaningful incentives is one of the most effective moves you can make right now.

Here’s how to turn casual guests into loyal advocates:

• Launch a modern rewards program: Use punch cards, SMS-based systems, or integrated loyalty tools within your POS. Make the rewards easy to understand and even easier to earn.
• Offer bounce-back deals: Use printed receipts or email receipts to offer timely discounts—like 15% off if they return within 7 days. This tactic boosts short-term frequency.
• Use polls and participation incentives: Let customers vote on seasonal specials, LTOs, or event nights via email or social media. Then reward participants with a coupon or surprise treat.
• Celebrate regulars: Spotlight returning guests on social media, offer birthday perks, or send hand-written thank you cards with to-go orders. Personal touches build emotional loyalty.
• Communicate your care: Transparency matters. Let your guests know you’re adjusting to economic conditions but still committed to providing great food and service. People root for businesses that are honest and human.

5. Streamline Labor & Enhance Staff Training 👤

Labor remains one of your most significant operational costs—and also one of the most dynamic areas where you can gain efficiency and improve outcomes. In unpredictable economic conditions, an agile, well-trained team gives you a huge edge.

Use these approaches to optimize your staffing strategy and boost performance:

• Cross-train strategically: Equip your team to cover multiple roles—like server/busser or line cook/prep—especially during slower periods or staff shortages. Flexibility reduces downtime and builds morale.
• Invest in short, focused training bursts: Host 10-minute refreshers during pre-shift meetings on upselling, specials, hospitality tone, or new menu items.
• Schedule smarter, not harder: Use digital tools to align staffing levels with actual traffic data and trends. Reduce overstaffing without risking service quality.
• Recognize & retain top performers: Loyalty starts with your internal team. Shout out wins, celebrate small milestones, and offer development opportunities to retain talent.

6. Be Visible & Market Your Value 📱

In uncertain times, visibility builds trust. Don’t assume that because business feels slower, you should go quiet. This is the moment to double down on marketing and meet guests where they are—with empathy, consistency, and a clear value proposition.

Here’s how to stay top of mind without overspending:

• Tell your story: Share how your team is working to deliver great meals despite rising costs. Use Instagram, email, and in-store signage to build a deeper connection.
• Make value obvious: Spotlight combo meals, weekday promos, or local sourcing efforts that justify pricing and create positive impressions.
• Optimize local SEO and review sites: Keep your Google Business and Yelp pages updated with hours, menus, and photos. Encourage happy guests to leave reviews.
• Run short-term marketing tests: A 7-day flash deal, social media giveaway, or BOGO lunch offer can re-ignite traffic quickly without long-term commitments.

Bringing It All Together

Tariffs aren’t just a line item on your supply invoice—they’re a signal. A reminder that today’s restaurant operator must wear many hats: chef, marketer, analyst, and economist. The good news? With the right strategies and mindset, navigating these challenges can sharpen your business and deepen your connection with guests.

Whether you're reengineering your menu, renegotiating vendor terms, or optimizing your packaging game, every small move adds up. Stay proactive. Review your costs monthly. Ask your team for insights. Partner with local suppliers. And when you do raise prices, lead with transparency and value.

Tariffs may be out of your control, but how you adapt to them isn't. Take this opportunity to streamline, innovate, and reconnect with the fundamentals that made you want to open a restaurant in the first place. This guide was built to give you the tools and insight to make strong, confident choices—and come out stronger on the other side.

And if your next challenge includes creating a space that’s both cost-efficient and customer-ready, we’re here to help. At Superior Seating, we’ve supported over 24,000 restaurants with furniture built to last—and built to look great. From budget-friendly bar stools to custom booths that fit your brand like a glove, we’re ready to partner with you on the next chapter.

Smart sourcing. Clear communication. Nimble leadership. These are the traits of restaurant success in 2025—and you’ve already got what it takes.